Europe's Muslim Population in Demographic Free-fall?

No, that's not a headline you expected to read, but it is suggested by a report from Denmark's Dream Institute indicating that Danish immigrant women in 1980 had on average 4 children but now have only 2.4 children. The study offers such reasons as the older age of women immigrating and fewer immigrants from poorer countries; but surely, being exposed to the hyper-modernity of Denmark must also play a role.

This drop in fertility has major implications for Denmark's ethnic composition. The last forecast, made in 2004, predicted immigrants and their descendants (from countries like Turkey, Somalia, Lebanon and Iraq) would constitute 15.3 percent of the population in 2080 (presuming no more immigration, I infer). The 2006 forecast finds them making up just under 8 percent.

Comment: The study is limited to Denmark, which probably has more stringent immigration controls than any other country in the West. But the demographic trend first spotted here is likely recur elsewhere, dimming the chances for a Muslim demographic takeover. (August 7, 2006)