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Context: Nine Eleven, Arab Spring, & Western Populism Under Trump Bannon

Reader comment on item: Jordan at the Precipice

Submitted by Robert (United States), Mar 11, 2017 at 12:03

Seeing the Forest for the Trees is always a problem - under Current Events turn into History.
I wish to argue that Israel, like Prussia under Bismark turn itself into modern Germany, Israel is the key to turning the Middle East in the direction of Western Modernity (is there any other?).

As we know, it was the British and French, as Christian inheritors of the Enlightenment, who during World War Two proceeded to dismember the Sick Man of Europe into "his" body parts, primarily the Arab Muslim Countries. Thereafter. this Remainder of the Ottoman Empire struggle to define its Polities/Polities: (2) al-Babba's Muslim Brotherhood, (1) Monarchies, (2) Nasserism, (3) Ba'athism, and now Daesh/ISS.

Ironically, it was an Order, the Teutonic Knights, headquartered in the Kingdom of Jerusalem, at Acre, from which Modern Germany eventually emerged once the Kingdom of Prussia emerged and Conquered the remnants of the Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation into the German Empire thanks to the Political wisdom of Prince Bismark and the military might of Prussia.

Like Prussia in Central Europe in its formative past, Israel sits similarly situated in the Middle East. The issue for that environment is who will lead Israel's Proactive Tactical Policies under a Strategy of bringing Peace to the Arab people who allegedly possess a "Religion of Peace" even though its ultimate Prophet, Mohammad, was among the world's greatest Warriors and Empire builders.

Jordan was - until the ISIS crisis - divided between a Majority Palestinian (former refugee Arabs from Israel) and a Minority Tribal earlier relatively indigenous Arabs of Palestine; it somewhat resembled Taiwan which received mainland Chinese who fled Mao's Revolution. But now Jordan has millions of Arabs from the ISIS Refugee creations.

Under the Obama administration, the only powers which have relatively substantially subdued their interests Militarily, were Israel and the United States, in part because under Obama and Netanyahu neither was on the same page. But now, that President Donald Trump and his chief Strategist, Stephen Bannon are in the White House, and the Obama-Kerry Two State Solution is no longer being forcefully pushed by the USA, European Union, or the United Nations, it seems clear that Israel has the option to express its will - by force as appears necessary. The Islam of the Arabs, effectively never allowed for the existence of Israel on the Ancient Muslim Land in and about Jerusalem; at the same time, it appears that the Arab world of the Middle East is currently in the phase of an "Arab Fall." Arabs have never been so disunited since they were "Liberated" from their Turkish Overlords, the Sultan and Caliph in Istanbul.

Trump has invited Abbas to the White House, where "no doubt" he will insist on his Maximalist Agenda: (1) not recognizing Israel as a Jewish State, (2) demand every inch of the pre-1967 Armistice Line as its Border, (3) have all of East Jerusalem as its Capital, (4) complete Sovereignty over its realm, including the Jordan River, and (5) no accounting for Gaza under Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, with only an Islamic Truce every 10 Years (as in the Koran), with the aim of Israel's ultimate destruction as vehemently supported by Iran under its Second Ayatollah, Khamenei, whose Theocratic status gives him the privilege of announcing the wishes of God, a kind of Pope Francis, but with far more secular power, and certainly not very Christ-like, "never turning the other cheek."

So the questions should be Tactical ones for the Israel-USA alliance: (1) When will the US Embassy move to Jerusalem, (2) When will Israel formally Annex Area C, (3) When will Israel take out Hezbollah, including Iranian military presence on its Norther frontier.

I think that these are now the questions confronting our Defense Department and how to coordinate the Tactics with a Strategy of solving the Middle East Question. Any opposition to Israeli Irredentism is essentially Pan-Arabist and Pan-Islamist in nature for the Arab Muslims peoples; for the West and the rest of the Christian world, it is essentially Antisemitism - Jews have been superseded since the rival of Christ; and places like China ("People Not of the Book") it's simply Realpolitik.

If I were in the shoes of Trump and Bannon I would demand that the King of Jordan drastically alter its Educational Curriculum to teach the Acceptance of Israel as a Jewish State. Also, the Displaced Arabs and Muslim in the Middle East is a force that will further eradicate Tribalism. Obama's administration empowered the forces of the "Law of Unintended Consequences"; no other President has brought about the extreme weakening of the Arab and Muslim Polities in the regions around Israel; saving the Kingdom of Jordan at all costs should not be at the top of the agenda; if the Monarchy of Jordan false, it may be either because of Islamism, Pan-Palestinianism, Tribalism, or the Anachronism of a Monarchy which is not restrained sufficiently by its Constitution. On the other hand, the Popularity of Jordan's King should contribute to implementing policies more favorable to Israel. The worst Condition that has been imposed on Israel is the outside determination by Obama-Kerry that there is only the Two-State Solution. But President Trump already stated that one or two is OK, if both parties agree.

It was Abba Eban who famously stated that the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Therefore, Israel and the USA should make their moves in spite of the Palestinians; and since the majority (60%) of Jordanian citizens are the ones who fled from the Israelis wars, while the rest are the indigenous but tribal Palestinians, Israel should see Jordan as Palestine - simply because it is, but also Strategically as in Israel's best interests. Bismark did not think of Napoleon III's interests in the 1870's he created Germany, and France had suffered the humiliation that cause a revolution in the form of the Paris Commune. Unless the King of Jordan can put extreme pressure on Abbas to come to terms with Israel realistically, the King's agenda should not be given much weight. What the Egyptians and Saudis want is probably the more important factor to consider. And here the Saudis, leading the Sunnis Arab world, apparently recognized Israel's right to Exist. Whether they can now impose that on their own populations is another question, but it shouldn't stop Israel and the USA from being Proactive, since the current situations are Unsustainable.


Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

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Reader comments (20) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
2"Jordan's 2016 constitutional amendments: A return to absolute monarchy?" [121 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
RobertOct 17, 2018 08:07245501
1"It's possible to overthrow Jordan's king" - Rachel Avraham [504 words]RobertOct 22, 2018 07:57245501
2Is Jordan "Czechoslovakia"? [89 words]RobertOct 16, 2018 14:24245484
The solution is simple but the status quo is preferable in Israel [415 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Eyad NusayrApr 3, 2017 20:40238133
Jordan at the Precipice [84 words]Angel Oteros GonzálezApr 2, 2017 15:42238073
Three State Solution [202 words]Michael SMar 22, 2017 06:31237832
Changes of State [267 words]M ToveyMar 28, 2017 18:14237832
Changes of State - Follow On and Continuing [175 words]M ToveyMar 30, 2017 13:41237832
The Status quo is not viable. [88 words]David W. LincolnMar 16, 2017 19:27237654
2Context: Nine Eleven, Arab Spring, & Western Populism Under Trump Bannon [1075 words]RobertMar 11, 2017 12:03237501
Jordan needs to take steps to avoid collapse. [116 words]Anne- USAMar 17, 2017 08:24237501
1Option of Fatah rule in West Bank is pure Western fantasy and doesn't exist in the real world [271 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
G MarcusMar 9, 2017 08:28237256
2Any Pal-Arab state in the West Bank would threaten Jordan even more than Israel [167 words]G MarcusMar 15, 2017 08:32237256
The Commuter Plan [183 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
PezDispenserMar 8, 2017 15:24237239
Rejection of the 'Palestinian' Model - Rejecting the Ancient Roman Influences [263 words]M ToveyMar 14, 2017 18:12237239
Had the PLO succeeded in the 70's, would Jordan have become acknowledged as Palestine? [7 words]AnonMar 8, 2017 15:07237238
Jordan at the Precipice [154 words]Judith DaviesMar 8, 2017 14:20237237
The Palestinian State [119 words]Dr. M.J. MarkoffMar 8, 2017 12:00237236
Excellent report, time to see the obvious [165 words]MalcolmMar 8, 2017 11:38237235
The Dire Dilemma of Jordan [216 words]M ToveyMar 8, 2017 11:14237234

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Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

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