Riformista: You wrote an article, "The momentous, 'horrific' Hamas-Israel deal," about the Jan. 15, 2025, ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, Is the new deal also horrific?
Daniel Pipes: Yes, it is even worse, being full of fantasies that have zero chance of fulfillment ("Hamas and other factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form. All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt").
But while I condemned the January agreement, I endorse this one. That's because my attitude towards Israel's war on Hamas has profoundly changed over the past nine months. In January, I wanted Israel to eliminate Hamas regardless of political price. That price then went up so much, for both Israel itself and for Diaspora Jewry, that since August I have called for Israel to end the fighting and also for Diaspora Jewry to shed its shyness and insist on this. I hate this conclusion but cannot find a way around it.
Riformista: From the beginning of the war in Gaza you have predicted an Israeli military failure. On what basis did you made this prediction?
DP: On the basis that Israel's government sought to achieve two contradictory goals at once, the return of the hostages and the destruction of Hamas. Obviously, it can only be one or the other. Every poll of Israelis showed that the emotional hold of the hostages' return far outweighed the strategic benefits of ending Hamas, implying that Israel had to lose the war – in stunning contrast to its successes against Hezbollah and Iran, where the strategic goal was clear and uncontested.
Riformista: After the failed Israeli strike in Qatar, it seems that things turned worse for Israel. An upset Trump not only forced Netanyahu publicly to apologize to Qatar but he endowed the emirate with American protection in case of another attack. What do you make of this?
DP: The attack on Qatar amounted to another terrible mistake by Israel. Yes, it needed to undermine Qatar's influence but this ham-handed attack did precisely the opposite, as you note. Most strikingly, a high-ranking Qatari official helped formulate the Israeli apology and was present as Benjamin Netanyahu apologized to Qatar's Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani.
 A frame grab from AFPTV shows smoke billowing from explosions caused by Israeli airstrikes targeting Hamas leaders in Doha on Sep. 9. |
Riformista: How much has Qatar influenced the Israeli-Hamas deal?
DP: I lack information on specifics but the generally favorable treatment of Hamas suggests substantial input from its patrons in Doha.
Riformista: According to Hagai Ben-Artzi, Israel has "been in a psychosis since the Yom Kippur War, which traumatized us with thousands of dead. We've entered a mindset of surrendering and retreating just to get a little quiet. This path leads to disaster, because the enemy understands our weak point—and they will exploit it completely." Do you agree?
DP: Very much so. In my 2024 book, Israel Victory: How Zionists Win Acceptance and Palestinians Get Liberated, I devote an entire chapter to this topic, titled "Placating the Enemy." Fortunately for Israel, the Arab states almost completely left the military battlefield after the Yom Kippur War, making it able to survive this otherwise potentially fateful weakness.
Riformista: It seems that Israel must prepare for more rounds of violence. Why can it not achieve a real and lasting victory against its foes?
DP: Israel has the misfortune of fighting the world's most celebrated victim. As suggested in my previous answer, while the Arab states effectively left the military battlefield over a half-century ago, the Palestinians have sustained the fight and now they have powerful new patrons in Iran, Türkiye, the Islamists, the Left, dictators, antisemites, and beyond.
Riformista: The Gaza war has had globally damaged Israel's image to an unprecedented level. Is this damage irreversible?
DP: Irreversible is a big word but, yes, I do expect that the accusation of genocide against Israel will do immense long-term damage. This calumny comes from all sides and polls show Western populations increasingly believe in it. Such attitudes will likely harm Israel for decades.
