Behind the roadmap

Submitted by Ilona Melstrads (United States), Jun 13, 2003 at 13:50

So far, Bush seems wishy-washy. Who are his advisors on this subject? (Yesterday a Haaretz article indicated that soon US might show some adjustment in the road map toward Israel's position, but on a relatively minor point.)

Is it possible that the terrorist groups around Israel are becoming emboldened because they are counting on Iraq turning out unfavorably for the US? This might be one reason that the roadmap is premature, along with the still-prevailing terrorist ideology.

At the height of American euphoria on Iraq, in mid- or late-April I, sent a pessimistic e-mail to a Fox commentator, but Fox must have confused me with an antiwar activist, or thought me just a nut (the latter is possible). I stated that the real war would begin some months later, after the restoration of most of the basic utilities. It would begin when the coalition starts to reconstruct the Iraqi economy. I guessed that Iraq would still have about 100,000 people, Iraqis plus sympathizers, willing to fight and sabotage the facilities as they are being constructed.

Estimating the original Iraqi military as about 1,000,0000 (together with the several hundred thousands of criminals Saddam Hussein released from prison), subtracting the large numbers who would not want to fight and those who might have been killed in the one-month war, about 100,000 fighters might remain. I simply could not believe in the almost completely vanishing Iraqi army implied by the news. (But that may be due o the absence of official, public, believable accounting of the original Iraqi forces, the numbers captured, and the numbers killed.)

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