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Don't forget the 800-lb. gorilla

Reader comment on item: Korean Delusions [of Appeasement]

Submitted by jackstpaul (United States), Oct 10, 2002 at 19:47

The analogy of North Korea to the other "appeasement" cases is fundamentally flawed because it ignores--despite mentioning--the 800-lb. gorilla in the room: the US.

North Korea may constitute a threat to South Korea, but to the US it's a mere flea. North Korea can't pursue any aggressive moves re: the South because the US won't allow it. Does North Korea somehow think 50 years after the end of the Korean War they will be able to strike the South with capitulation by the US? No. Who else will North Korea strike? China? No. Russia? No. Japan? No. Any other Asian nation or any other at all? No. The only option the North has is to act as a rogue state in a single, final blaze of "glory." Yes, the North, even if it has nuclear weapons, could use a weapon of mass destruction against, say, Japan, once, but only once, before being destroyed. That's the act of an irrational agent; possible but extraordinarily unlikely.

Why does the South seek to warm relations, while still keeping its defenses ready? Because the North is in such bad shape and in steep decline that the South is trying to shape the future seen-as-certain end of the North's reign and reunification of the peoples. The experience of the USSR collapse suggests--along with innumerable details I'll not mention--the example of the eventual collapse of a greatly wounded, limping regime like the North's. Few nations in the world are as isolated as North Korea, and its prognosis is terminal.

Of course the notion of North Korea supplying arms and arms technology to other states is a concern, that isn't at issue in the commentary and comparison at hand.

Whatever North Korea would want to do is held in check by the US, not by South Korea, and that wasn't true of Hitler and Britain--the US wasn't the sole dominant and patron power it is today nor was any other party strong enough to serve as the protector of the appeasers.

North Korea is only a threat--a one-time suicidal strike aside—truly to North Koreans, and no others.
Submitting....

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Reader comments (34) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
What problems must be overcome? [42 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Ty SeldenMar 8, 2003 19:497144
Problems with Reunification [77 words]BrianApr 2, 2007 12:337144
Let South Korea Reunify [123 words]David PaulJan 17, 2003 13:395830
Mr. Pipes actually learns from history [398 words]Doug DuncanJan 6, 2003 01:525510
It's the Arabs appeasing the US [120 words]A disagreerOct 28, 2002 12:403356
3 Quibbles [180 words]William KinneyOct 27, 2002 15:133337
Reply to commenter Eric Withee [349 words]Sammy FinkelmanOct 23, 2002 14:513223
Time will tell... [42 words]Jeff LermanOct 21, 2002 19:383165
Here's a good question.. [94 words]Jon WOct 19, 2002 19:333145
Now with nukes! [60 words]Ben ShniperOct 18, 2002 16:253138
Why are we still in South Korea? [141 words]Joe CunninghamOct 18, 2002 13:123134
Yes, it did begin in 1979--I was there. [244 words]Gregory C. Colan, Esq.Oct 11, 2002 13:433051
Don't forget the 800-lb. gorilla [346 words]jackstpaulOct 10, 2002 19:473036
Key causes [65 words]Robert EinarssonOct 10, 2002 19:473035
Removing the tripwire? [31 words]mccOct 10, 2002 13:093024
Another Reason [76 words]Fred GlassOct 10, 2002 02:363015
Sign of Maturity [221 words]Bob GreeneOct 10, 2002 01:403010
Awakening? [97 words]Yale ZussmanOct 10, 2002 00:583008
Thank You for Showing us the Big Picture [69 words]Rachel NeuwirthOct 9, 2002 17:472997
We should fix Korea first.... [186 words]J. E. WitheeOct 9, 2002 17:342996
People need hope [60 words]Mark FeldsteinOct 9, 2002 17:232995
Playing into the left wing's hand [147 words]Harry JohnsonOct 9, 2002 14:492993
A brewing disaster [29 words]Isaac BotbolOct 9, 2002 13:062991
China's Role? [57 words]Peter WestreOct 9, 2002 11:332988
Reunification at all costs? [297 words]Joshua TruaxOct 9, 2002 11:272987
Timely Observation and Analogy [209 words]Ken HamiltonOct 9, 2002 11:032986
Thoughts on Korea [219 words]M. SmithOct 9, 2002 10:382984
Not often wrong, but wrong never the less. [349 words]Roy JacobsOct 9, 2002 10:362983
NIce guys finish last, and often dead [43 words]"JB" in PGHOct 9, 2002 10:302982
More dangerous than Iraq [27 words]Thomas JonesOct 9, 2002 09:582980
American Civil War [53 words]Victor LipshutzOct 9, 2002 09:542979
Western Delusions [52 words]Adam GreavesOct 9, 2002 08:342978
We too [41 words]George ValdshteinOct 9, 2002 07:222977
Good article [20 words]Steve NorthOct 9, 2002 06:092975

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