Agree with remarks, but some questions

Submitted by Stuart Fagin (United States), Apr 21, 2020 at 00:22

Pipes' central conclusion, that Turkey will be anti-American for the foreseeable future is surely correct. It conforms to the principle that the most enduring governments in the post-WWII world are anti-western autocracies, of any stripe. Consider the endurance of varied anti-western autocracies such as Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, and Cuba. (The USSR is the single anomaly of an anti-western autocracy imploding. However, its demise was attributable to unique conditions). Anti-western autocracies can only be overturned by external armed forces, such as in Iraq and Afghanistan. This is why the Venezuelan Maduro dictatorship will persist unless militarily challenged.

In contrast, western-aligned autocracies are the least stable form of government. Consider the fate of Mubarak, and particularly Gaddafi whose demise corresponded with his flipping allegiance.

So, while Pipes' central conclusion must be correct, it raises several questions:

1. Why is Turkey successful in swaying public opinion against the US, while in Iran the opposite seems to be true. Will the Turks have to spend a couple of more decades marinating in anti-westernism before they turn?

2. Is there significant anti-Russian feeling in Turkey, remnant of the historic antagonisms? If so, could this foster pro-western sentiment among Turks?

3. Are there any members of NATO who currently recognize the full turn of Turkey to Islamism?

4, Has any member voiced support for Turkish ouster?

5. Will the Turkish threat of using the immigration weapon serve to prevent European support for ouster?

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