Submitted by michael c(United Kingdom), Jul 31, 2005 at 06:35
I agree with Werner that any overt [air] attack by the US on Iran has the risk of uniting the whole population against the US, triggering Hezbollah attacks etc but maybe most importantly, would potentially unite the Shia with the Sunnis/Wahabbis against the US. This would surely be a worst-case scenario, both for the region and globally.
I would bet on some 'operational problems' at the new reactor.
Contrary to the opinions of Mr Phares, I see Iraq as a disaster waiting to happen, despite good intentions, and find it easy to imagine a takover by the Shia clerics and an extension of the Sharia fundamentalism that is already taking hold of the south. Not hard to see a US withdrawal from Bagdad with the same resonance as that from Saigon a generation ago. However, would there be a silver lining in the conterbalance of Shia with Sunni? If it spilled over into civil war would that pit Iran against Saudi Arabia? Would the West stand back and let them get on with it?
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