I share Daniel's skepticism concerning Turkey

Submitted by Michael S, Feb 23, 2017 at 16:31

Oy, Daniel! You certainly aren't one to smooth-talk your way out of a crisis!

You have certainly cast your lot about Turkey, by supporting last year's coup. I did not do so, because to this day, I am persuaded that Erdogan himself engineered the event undercover. Be that as it may, I imagine that, were I a public figure like yourself, I would not be welcome today in Turkey either.

The world today is being continually bombarded, by the international mainstream media, with a largely false narrative that the focus of attention ought to be on a virtual civil war in the US between the present government, on the one hand, and a wild array of anarchists, Hollywood stars and leftist activists (which now count in their number, to his shame, Sen. Charles Ellis Schumer). When it comes to a battle like this, essentially between Disneyland and the White House, I tend to think the White House will win handily; so have treated this "war" as largely illusion. It MAY get out of hand, because stranger things have happened -- the election, for instance of Barack Obama; and many people may get hurt as a result.

Behind the smoke, a great deal is happening around the world, much of it involving primarily Russia and secondarily China. It is not divorced from the false narrative above; in fact, the false narrative of chaos in America seems to be driving world leaders, already spooked by the gross incompetence of the Obama Administration, to fear that the US leadership intends to turn inward and become pre-occupied with domestic squabbles. This isolationism is certainly not of the agenda of our current President, Mr. Trump; but the illusion of it is having an effect that could cause a great deal of trouble.

In the Middle East, Putin's Russia seems to have been pulling off a miracle: getting Turkey and Iran to cooperate with each other in Syria. Having accomplished this, Putin should not surprize anyone with his other major ME move, namely, wooing the Egypt-UAE-Libya (Haftar & Tobruk) coalition to his side. He has, of course, engineered the sale of two powerful amphibious assault ships to Egypt by France, which he now plans to equip with Russian systems and helicopters. He has backed Haftar as commander-in-chief of Libya, and signed a deal for joint-production of next-generation fighters with the UAE:

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-uae-sign-deal-develop-fifth-generation-fighter-jet-1914572146

Upon seeing this, I fancied that Russia plans to be master of a three-ring circus, involving Turkey, Iran and Egypt. But then, I read the following:

"Egypt and Algeria join IRAN,Iraq, Syria, TURKEY, Russia in growing alliance against ISIS

"...Iraq will provide Egypt with 1 million barrels of Basra light oil each month. The agreement involves extending an oil pipeline from Iraq to Egypt via Jordan. In December, Iraqi petroleum minister Ali al-Luiabi met with the heads of major oil and natural gas companies in Cairo, inviting them to contribute into developing the industry in his country.

"Egypt is about to train four Iraqi army units on war against terrorism, in the light of the rapprochement between Egypt and the Iraqi-Iranian axis in the region..."

-- http://tapnewswire.com/2017/01/egypt-and-algeria-join-iraniraq-syria-turkey-russia-in-growing-alliance-against-isis/

This is more than just a "three-ring circus" in the making. The oil offer to Egypt is intended to be actualized by a pipeline to the latter through JORDAN, its only partner in having normal relations with Israel. Put this together with Netanyahu's recent overtures for cooperation with Saudi Arabia (which has become diplomatically isolated by Russia, Turkey and Egypt), and we can see a very serious confrontation building between the following:

SIDE I: US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and few others

SIDE II: Russia, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan et al.

Forgive me, if this seems like the Ezekiel 38-39 coalition against Israel. I did not intend to insinuate that; though the coincidence is striking.

President Trump has committed himself to fighting ISIS, which you and I both believe is a wrong priority. My own advice to him, is to not get entangled in the ISIS-focused fight in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere; but to focus on preparing the US economy and military in order to be able to back Israel, diplomatically and politically, when Turkey and friends bury the hatched concenring Assad and turn their attention instead to attacking the Jewish homeland.

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