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An Iranian "no" vote is meaningless

Reader comment on item: If Tehran Turns Down the Nuclear Deal

Submitted by Kenneth Besig (Israel), Aug 20, 2015 at 07:03

!Your argument, Dr. Pipes, that the Iranian leadership might well reject the Vienna surrender because they fear it would bring popular discontent to a head and thus might threaten their religious fundamentalist dictatorship is well thought out and quite reasonable. My feeling, however, is that the Iranians will reject the deal because it would run contrary to their radical religious thinking, that is it would be signing a pact with Satan himself. This might seem silly to our cynical Western minds, but let me assure you that these people take their religion seriously, especially in this regard.

Besides, the Iranians do not even need this treaty any more. The mullahs in Teheran know that no serious military or economic sanctions will ever be applied to them, no matter what they do. Indeed, already US, EU, China, and Russia are signing economic agreements worth billions of dollars with Iranian companies and governmental institutions, whether Iran has the dollars, today, to pay for anything or not! Perhaps the Iranians really, really, need the promised 150 billion dollars, but I doubt it, all the Iranians wanted was a Western surrender, which they got, relief from the sanctions regime, which they got, and recognition of their nuclear program as legitimate, which sadly, they also got. And all these Iranian achievements remain even if the mullahs reject the accord.

Frankly, Israel and the Sunni Arabs have been officially cut loose from the US and the EU, and we are now on our own and our policies vis a vis Iran will be based on our assessments, not those of our former Western allies.

Now as to your remarks regarding the Palestinians, the same sort of thinking applies as the Iranian, the Palestinians regard Israel as the embodiment of Satan and absolute cruelty and wickedness. For them to sign off on a peace treaty with "Satan" Israel would abnegate everything they stand for. And to seal the Palestinian rejection, if the treaty mandated the end for all time all Palestinian hostilities, all Palestinian demands for compensation, all forms of Palestinian boycott, and any hostile comments by the Palestinians, then there is not a chance in Hades of the Palestinian signing!

But you remark, the Palestinians could just sign any document, and build up their forces for a little while, then kick the treaty into the garbage, sneer at Israel, and start another guerilla war against us Israelis.

So why don't the Palestinians just do it? Partly because of the "Satan" as Israel stuff, but largely because it would mean the Palestinian cause would cease to exist and so would the reason for a Palestine. Why, because the last thing the world wants or will accept is another oppressive, cruel, ineffective, economically non viable, rogue, Asian, Muslem Arab state.

What would probably happen would be the annexation of the Gaza Strip by Egypt, and the annexation of the Judea/Samaria areas left to the Palestinians by Jordan.

That is in a perfect world, given the refugee problem caused by the Syrian civil war, the Iranian sponsorship of civil wars in Yemen and Saudi Arabia as well as other places, the Sinai terrorist war, and the breakdown of Pax Americana in the Middle East, horrific death and destruction is all we can expect for the next several years. The region is changing as I write, populations are transferring themselves, killing is going on at an almost industrial scale, the atrocities committed by all the fighting parties borders on the incredible, and no end is in sight. Frankly, we Israelis are very worried, the US has just picked up it's stuff and left us hanging, and abandoned all the other good guys here, it is very sad and frustrating.


Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

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Reader comments (30) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
If Tehran turns down Nuclear Deal. response to Yehuda [169 words]AnneSep 1, 2015 08:19224887
2One important part missing [151 words]YehudaAug 30, 2015 08:47224870
Unsound logic [229 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
AnonAug 29, 2015 16:44224863
Response to Daniel Pipes [60 words]AnonSep 3, 2015 01:01224863
The West, at the moment, are lost, incompetent wimps [482 words]Michael SSep 18, 2015 11:32224863
Domestic politics would be bad for Obama [132 words]Mike SterAug 25, 2015 20:36224822
1"Khamenei Will Not Officially Approve the Deal to Pull Out Later When He Wishes" [118 words]PezDispenserAug 25, 2015 04:57224815
If Tehran Turns Down the Nuclear Deal [101 words]Angel OterosAug 23, 2015 19:14224795
1Obama's defense of the Iran treaty seems excessive and unnecessary [447 words]Kenneth BesigAug 23, 2015 11:51224794
3Plea To Khamenei From Barack Obama [202 words]DaveAug 23, 2015 11:48224793
Big deal. Iran gives the world threats and promises; but they always give Israel rocket attacks [144 words]Michael SAug 22, 2015 20:52224789
Iran might reshuffle the cards, togain more [485 words]avi ShammasAug 22, 2015 15:14224787
reallt? [32 words]cvtAug 22, 2015 14:36224784
Was that Sarcasm?! [229 words]Barry BlackAug 22, 2015 09:35224781
The world may lie about it; but Israel will continue to be victorious [154 words]MIchael SAug 24, 2015 18:46224781
Article that backs up your thesis [10 words]PezDispenserAug 22, 2015 04:06224776
On the other hand... [89 words]Gerome TorribioAug 21, 2015 18:37224769
Impotent west. [20 words]JosephAug 21, 2015 06:14224767
opposition inside or outside the circle of power [110 words]mythAug 21, 2015 04:36224765
Iranian rejection of nuclear deal [92 words]Paul WinterAug 21, 2015 02:55224763
Grow a Pair [214 words]TL WinslowAug 20, 2015 17:24224759
Iran says no [60 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
DianneAug 20, 2015 16:57224758
Have fun "snapping back" UN sanctions [46 words]Dan SchwartzAug 20, 2015 15:36224757
Why have the Iranians been negotiating in the first place? [104 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
AndyAug 20, 2015 14:07224756
Why were US embassy hostages in Tehran released as soon as Reagan took the oath of office??????? [74 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
EdwardAug 20, 2015 13:15224755
what Khamenei really wants [211 words]Saul SteinAug 20, 2015 10:01224753
2An Iranian "no" vote is meaningless [619 words]Kenneth BesigAug 20, 2015 07:03224751
Very interesting [33 words]JohnBAug 20, 2015 03:35224749
1Problem #3 [72 words]Robert BarzelayAug 20, 2015 01:49224747
If Teheran turns down the deal [220 words]Edmond BeniacarAug 20, 2015 00:40224746

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Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

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