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Anti-western dictatorships rival democracies as the most stable form of government

Reader comment on item: 50 Years of Syrian Misery

Submitted by stuffagain (United States), Mar 9, 2013 at 22:26

Dr. Pipes here calls attention to the longevity of the Syrian Baathists on the 50th anniversary of its ascent to power. This observation illustrates the more general point that anti-western dictatorships today rival democracies as the most stable form of government.

Consider the longevity of other anti-western dictatorships, either communist, Islamist or kleptocracy; Cuba, North Korea, China, North Vietnam, Iran, Venezuela and Zimbabwe. There is little prospect, in any of these nations, of internal pro-democratic forces prevailing on their own. In contrast, western-aligned dictatorships are an endangered species. Those of southern Europe (Spain, Greece, and Portugal) transitioned to democracy in the 70's. South American western-aligned dictatorships transitioned in the 80's and 90's. Failed Asian western-aligned dictatorships include South Korea, the Philippines and Iran (under the Shah).

Why the difference? The suppression of striving democratic movements requires a degree of savagery inconsistent with the values of the US and Europe, the large-power allies of western-aligned dictators. When the demonstrations arise these dictators find their efforts at suppression undermined. Obama's undermining of Mubarak, follows the pattern of Carter's undermining the Shah. In contrast, the large power allies of the anti-western dictators, China and the Russia, have no qualms or limits. The only interest China has in North Korea's prison camps is to consider how they compare to their own.

Therefore, when anti-western dictatorships fall it must always be because external forces unseat them. This is either by direct use of external forces as in Iraq and Afghanistan, or indirectly through extensive military support of insurgents as in Nicaragua in the 80's and recently in Libya.

Given this template, what is the prognosis for the rebellion against the anti-western Syrian dictatorship? Dr. Pipes believes it to be doomed. If so, it will only be due to the support provided by Sunni Islamist states to the rebels. Otherwise, the Baathists with support from Iran would have no trouble suppressing it.

A final thought. The struggle is analogous to the Spanish Civil War when the Communists squared off against the Fascists. It is hard for the west to find its dog in this fight.

Submitting....

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

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Reader comments (17) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
1Assad the Exception? [235 words]ChadMar 10, 2013 18:10204182
2You raise an interesting point [334 words]saraMar 10, 2013 18:41204182
1Syrian people, other people [58 words]SJoshMar 10, 2013 03:04204173
1Follow the money [33 words]EthanPMar 10, 2013 20:07204173
1Anti-western dictatorships rival democracies as the most stable form of government [349 words]stuffagainMar 9, 2013 22:26204168
2The Muslim/Arab world does not know how to live in peace. [135 words]batya daganMar 9, 2013 21:56204167
1Islamic Ethics Are A Failed Paradigm [90 words]DaveMar 9, 2013 21:40204166
1some good in the Bathist regime? [16 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Barbara HoshikoMar 9, 2013 16:40204158
1Saddam & Assad friendly toward Christians [115 words]EliyahuMar 10, 2013 16:00204158
50 Years of Syrian Mysery [171 words]JudithMar 9, 2013 13:21204153
What's the meaning of the Palestininan/ Hijaz flag inside the number 8? [25 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
PezDispenserMar 9, 2013 02:23204141
1"Horror and Barbarity" [134 words]sdjamesMar 9, 2013 01:33204140
1Colonial Boundries [104 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
EthanPMar 8, 2013 16:54204130
1Assyria [20 words]JenkaMar 9, 2013 10:36204130
4language lost [203 words]mythMar 9, 2013 17:18204130
2No Simple Answers. [157 words]EthanPMar 9, 2013 21:04204130
1"Surely we have been here before .?" [74 words]UgriMar 11, 2013 01:28204130

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Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

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