I have written a series of articles tracing the ineffectiveness of Palestinian terrorism against Israel – the first of them in December 2001, followed by others in February 2002, August 2002, January 2003, and most recently in April 2004. While the timetable of Palestinian recognition of failure has been slower than I expected, short of a mega-terror attack, things do seem to be winding down. Patrick Bishop of the Daily Telegraph reviews the situation today in "Has Israel beaten the suicide bombers?" noting that
It is three months since the last serious terrorist attack. The army says there were 25 such attacks in 2002, which killed 147 people. Last year there were 20, killing 141. So far this year there have been only two, in which 19 died. The Israelis are starting to believe that their tactics are working. Palestinian groups fighting them tend to agree
(May 22, 2004)
June 4, 2004 update: A reader, Judith Antonelli, points out that Bishop's figures are wrong. So far this year, there have been four (not two) suicide bombings, in which 35 have died (not 19):
- Jan. 14, Erez, killing 4
- Jan. 24, Jerusalem, killing 11;
- Feb. 22, Jerusalem, killing 10;
- Mar. 14, Ashdod, killing 10.
June 18, 2004 update: Suddenly, my view that Israel is winning is popping up all over – well, all over among those whose opinion I respect. Here are four noteworthy analyses in the space of the past week:
- Editorial, "The End of the Intifada?" The Wall Street Journal, June 11, 2004.
- Isabel Kershner, "Death of an Intifada," The Jerusalem Report, June 14, 2004.
- Editorial, "Keep winning ," The Jerusalem Post, June 15, 2004.
- Charles Krauthammer, "Israel's Intifada Victory," June 18, 2004.
Now, how long will it take for the rest of the media to pick up on this development? Will it ever?
Sept. 28, 2004 update: The answer is now in: Yes, those who least understand the Arab-Israeli conflict, like Laura King of the Los Angeles Times (for details on her problems, see the CAMERA studies on her), has figured out the score. The headline of her article says it all: "Losing Faith in the Intifada: As uprising enters fifth year, some Palestinians call it a political and economic disaster." And even the BBC has noticed: the first line of an article today reads "Four years after the eruption of the al-Aqsa intifada, the dominant mood among Palestinians is one of defeat."