War in the Gulf: Implications for Israel

The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies once again proves that Israel has joined that exclusive club of countries which disposes of top-notch, full-service strategic analysis. Drawing on a study group made up primarily of its own analysts, the Center looks at Desert Storm's impact on Israel in four sections: global political implications, military lessons, the Arab-Israeli peace process, and domestic politics within Israel.

The authors see the war having, on balance, slightly affirmative implications for Israel. Shai Feldman makes the original argument that Israel's deterrence of Iraqi chemical weapons outweighed its inability to deter the conventional missiles. Dore Gold refers to "mixed trends" for Israel vis-à-vis the United States; Abraham Ben-Zvi writes of a "new complex" of U.S.-Israel relations; the editor sees a "favorable balance of ramifications" for the peace process; and Aharon Yariv closes the book with the assertion that "the balance of Gulf War implications for Israel is a positive one." The analysis in detail bears out these commonsensical conclusions.

The authors prove, however, not to be prophets. Although the book was updated to the end of 1991 Galia Golan holds that the Soviet Union's behavior in the crisis "assured itself . . . a future role in the region." And Asher Arian argues that the war reinforced a perception that "Likud was more likely than Labor to lead the nation successfully."

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