Question: What are the next steps for the UAE process?
Answer: Israel and the UAE now must translate their Aug. 13 joint statement into a formal diplomatic document. The major sticking point likely concerns the duration of Israel's commitment to "suspend declaring sovereignty" over parts of the West Bank. Does "suspend" here mean a year, a decade, or forever? Emirati demands to make it permanent will prompt a great debate in Israel. I expect those demands will eventually be accepted. The lesser sticking point concerns an Israeli green light for the U.S. government to sell F-35 jet fighters to the Emirates.
Q: What countries do you see "normalizing" relations with Israel and why?
A: Several possibilities exist: Bahrain, Oman, Sudan, and Morocco. Bahrain has similar concerns as the UAE vis-à-vis Iran; Sudan sees this as a way to leave behind the Bashir era. So, these are the two most likely to plunge ahead.
Q: What are the central pros and cons to "normalization"?
A: For Israel: It means giving up annexing the West Bank in return for some degree of acceptance in the neighborhood.
For the Arabs: It means antagonizing Islamists, Palestinian nationalists, and other anti-Zionists in return for leaving behind a futile and ugly conflict.
Q: What does this mean for future of a solution with the Palestinians?
A: While the Arab states are still careful to pay attention to the Palestinian issue, they will not permit the Palestinian Authority or Hamas to dictate their policies.
Q: How do Arab countries sell such a normalization to their citizens? What risk does this pose internally?
A: As the Tunisian elections in late 2019 confirmed, Arabic-speaking populations remain more anti-Zionist than their rulers. Therefore, this sale has to be done carefully and by stressing the benefits to Palestinians.
The internal risk varies from country to country; it's much easier in a traditional society like the UAE where the populace tends to defer to leaders than in a more modern country. Normalization with Israel is fraught with dangers, there's no getting around that; but it is also the single biggest step forward to join the modern world.
